Huge demand for the offering encouraged Facebook to sell even more shares, and now its giant IPO could bring in a record USD 18.4 billion, more than the USD 17.9 billion record offering of Visa shares.

If Facebook prices at the top of its range, its valuation would be USD 104 billion.

“It will be Facebook that will be the big story and everything else will pale in comparison,” said Daniel Greenhaus, global market strategist at BTIG. “But at the end of the day it`s going to be a moment in time when people focus on it-and presumably move on to other items.”

Stock-market strategists do not expect the Facebook deal to have much general market impact, but it will be critical to the IPO market that Facebook stock rises after the offering, and holds gains.

“There`s no denying it`s a rich valuation. From a broader perspective, its brought a lot of people into the market in terms of awareness and it will certainly contribute to some interesting volatility during the course of the day on Friday, but I can`t really say whether it becomes a driver of market activity yet,” Greenhaus said.

Besides Facebook, which should price after the close, there are earnings expected from Wal-Mart, Dollar Tree, Gamestop, Precision Castparts and Ross Stores.

Autodesk, Applied Materials and Salesforce.com report earnings after the close.

There are several important pieces of economic data, including weekly jobless claims at 8:30am ET, and the Philadelphia Fed survey and leading indicators, both at 10am.

The G-8 leaders also begin to gather Thursday night ahead of Friday and Saturday meetings at Camp David.

Greece is expected to be a big topic of discussion. “If the G-8 simply puts out a defacto statement like it always does, it`s going to be a disappointment to the market. At some point, it requires a multilateral approach to solve this problem,” said Boris Schlossberg of GFT Forex.

Greece heads to a new election June 17, after politicians failed to put together a ruling coalition, following the May 6 election. Fears that Greece would leave the euro zone, wreaking havoc in the financial system, has been weighing on markets.

Markets were boosted Thursday after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said it would benefit the euro zone if Greece would stay a member. Several times she used the word “solidarity” in an exclusive interview with Silvia Wadhwa.

“I think the politicians know what they have to do and they just don`t want to do it. They have to give Greece more money if they want to keep the union alive. Put up or shut up. They literally have to renegotiate the debt terms on one hand and provide grants on the other,” said Schlossberg.

Headlines about Greek banks hit the euro and stocks in late-morning trading, as a story eventually filtered out that the Greek banks were relying on emergency lending funneled through the Bank of Greece, rather than the conventional monetary policy operations of the European Central Bank. Once the banks restructure, they can use the conventional operations.

The Dow Wednesday fell 25 to 12,606 and the SandP 500 was down 5 at 1,325. The 10-year Treasury was yielding 1.765%, its lowest closing yield since September.

Gold continued to break down, sliding into bear market territory when it fell below USD 1,538.96, 20 percent below its all-time intraday high of USD 1,923.70 per ounce, reached in September. It finished the day at USD 1536.20 per ounce.

Oil ended at USD 92.51 per barrel, its lowest close since Nov. 2

Asian mkts trade higher | Hang Seng up 0.4%

Asian markets were trading higher. Shanghai Composite rose 8.11 points or 0.35% to 2,354.30 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 76.97 points or 0.40% at 19,336.80.

Singapore’s Straits Times rose 2.84 points or 0.08% to 2,846.36 and South Korea’s Kospi Composite Index was up 8.13 points or 0.44% at 1,848.66. Taiwan Weighted went up 66.68 points or 0.92% to 7,301.25.

However, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Average fell 17.92 points or 0.20% to 8,783.25.

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Even though the Fed has signaled it has no plans for new easing, investors will study the minutes of its April meeting when they are released at 2 pm. for any hint of what would cause the Fed to embark on a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) .

Markets are also watching the latest developments from Europe, an increasing cause for concern now that Greece’s efforts to form a government have failed and its banks appear to be under stress. Late day reports that depositors had withdrawn 700 million euros from Greek banks sent stocks tumbling into the final hour of trading Tuesday.

The fear that a bank ‘run’ was underway fed concerns that Greece would leave the euro zone, and in the background, the fear that other nations might follow it.

But investors focused on Europe are also wondering if it`s getting to be a serious enough factor to ultimately push the Fed into a new easing mode. The developments in Greece have escalated since the Fed last met.

“I think the big issues is that we know they kind of backed away from QE3, and there had already been pretty strong evidence of that I think in the March minutes. It would be interesting to see if there`s any talk on what might lead them to do that. It`s clearly what the market is focused on. It`s a topic that just won`t go away,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Pierpont Securities.

Stanley said while serious, he does not expect the situation in Greece to have much effect on the US unless it leads to a tightening of financial conditions.

“I think it’s something to be watched and I don’t dismiss it, but I’ve got to believe that having so much time to prepare, I’ll be surprised if this catches anybody by surprise,” said Stanley.

“I don`t see how there`s any other end of story other than that they leave the euro zone. It doesn`t seem as a society they are prepared to do what they need to do to stay in,” he added.

The Dow finished down 63 points at 12,632, and the SandP 500 slid 7 to 1,330, after breaking through the key 1,340 support in Monday`s selloff. The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.76 percent, the lowest level since October, and just above the record low of 1.67 percent of last September.

“We’re back to a situation where not only is there no water in the hose, but we don`t know who the fireman is,” said John Briggs, senior Treasury strategist at RBS.

The euro fell to a four-month low, finishing at 1.2730.

“Peripheral debt never tightened” when stocks were rising earlier in the day, Briggs added. “The fact we continue to leak lower tells us there`s still position exposure… we haven`t had a cathartic cleansing. It`s all been drip, drip, drip. I can`t remember the last time when you looked at a euro chart that you had it stair step for days,” he said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel met with France`s newly elected president Francois Hollande, and together they said they would like Greece to stay in the euro zone. Greece is now headed for a new election in June, after its political parties failed to form a coalition government. Silvia Wadhwa interviews Merkel Wednesday.

“The Europeans aren`t going to throw the Greeks out,” said Milton Ezrati, senior economist and market strategist at Lord Abbett. If the Greeks leave, it will be their choice. “This is not going to bring Europe down… I don’t think the European Central Bank will wait as long as they did (in the past) to intervene. If this falls apart, and there is no euro, there`s no need for a European Central Bank .”

US stocks tried to rally Tuesday, after Monday`s steep losses. “I think people realize there`s value, and the US economy seems to be plodding on so there`s a great desire to be in or at least there`s a great desire to see the good in this situation, but it`s difficult to square it when there`s so much uncertainty coming out of Europe,” he said.

Besides the Fed minutes, there are housing starts and building permits at 8:30 a.m., and industrial production and capacity utilization at 9:15 am.

“Those are two numbers where it looks like you got the weather payback in March so those numbers could be rather strong. I have industrial production up 0.6 after the flat number in March,” Stanley said.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, who has spoken against QE3, is speaking at 12:30 pm in Louisville, KY.

And his topic is “Fed on Pause.” Bullard has said the Fed should only do QE3 if the economy deteriorates.

There are several major retailers reporting earnings Wednesday morning, including Target, Staples and Abercrombie and Fitch. Limited Brands reports after the closing bell. Investors will also be focused on the disappointing report from JC Penney, which reported a loss and saw a 20% decline in sales. JC Penney stock fell sharply after hours.

Deere also reports earnings Wednesday morning, and AIG holds its annual meeting at 11 am.

The countdown to Facebook`s IPO pricing Thursday afternoon continues. Facebook plans to increase the size of its IPO by 85 million shares, says someone familiar with the matter, a move that could value the offering at as much as $18.5 billion.

As the social media company heads to its offering, GM decided to stop advertising on Facebook after determining its ads there had little impact on consumers. A new poll showed that 57% of the users polled never click on ads or other sponsored content on Facebook.

GM will also be in focus after Warren Buffett`s Berkshire Hathaway filed late Wednesday that it bought a 10 million stake in GM.

Asian markets decline | Hang Seng falls 2.5%

Asian markets were trading lower as uncertainty stemming from the political stalemate in Greece gave investors another reason to be cautious. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 2.49% or 495.67 points to 19,398.64 and Chinese Shanghai Composite declined 13.36 points or 0.56% to 2,361.48.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Average lost 79.95 points or 0.90% to 8,820.79 and Singapore’s Straits Times was down 24.07 points or 0.84% to 2,852.63.

South Korea’s Kospi Composite Index declined 21.33 points or 1.12% to 1,877.63 and Taiwan Weighted slipped 53.47 points or 0.72% to 7,342.17.

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Europe is expected to keep investors jumpy as well, with inconclusive results from the recent Greek election and the country’s future appearing more worrisome.

The US economic picture appears cloudy these days, with some data showing a more positive trend and other reports showing the opposite. An index of consumer sentiment rose to its highest in a more than four years, but last week’s US jobs report showed another monthly decline in hiring.

Next week brings minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting, which investors will look to for more guidance on whether the central bank plans to give additional help to the US economy.

Stocks closed lower for a second straight week on Friday after a week of choppy trading. Strategists say that’s likely to be the case again in days to come.

“Expect more volatility. We’re still seeing this natural risk aversion. We expect any source of bad news to trigger a sell-off, but we’re still not in a red-alert area,” said Omar Aguilar, chief investment officer of equities for Charles Schwab in San Francisco.

“The good economy in the US is leading the way, with the Federal Reserve being very accommodating.”

Citigroup’s chief US equity strategist, Tobias Levkovich, said the market has likely begun a pullback, and that the Standard & Poor’s 500 index could fall 5% to 7% from its April 2nd intraday high of 1,422.

“We’re going to probably spend several months in kind of choppy trading,” he said.

News that JPMorgan Chase & Co, the largest US bank by assets, lost billions of dollar on bad trades raised fresh worries that the financial sector was not on the mend. The KBW bank index fell 1.2% for the day.

There’s likely to be more focus on the company next week. After the close of trading, Fitch Ratings cut JPMorgan’s credit rating one notch and cited the bank’s USD 2 billon trading loss, and Standard & Poor’s revised its outlook of JPMorgan to negative.

The S&P financial index has lost ground since rallying 21.5% in the first quarter. The index is still up 13.6% since the start of the year.

Message from the Fed

Wall Street will scrutinize the minutes from the FOMC’s late April meeting, which the Fed will release on Wednesday at around 2 p.m. Eastern time.

At that April 24-25 meeting, the FOMC repeated its expectation that interest rates would not rise until late 2014 at the earliest, and it took no action on monetary policy.

But Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spurred stock market gains when he told reporters on April 25 that “we remain entirely prepared to take additional balance-sheet actions as necessary to achieve our objectives. Those tools remained very much on the table and we would not hesitate to use them, should the economy require that additional support.”

More focus may be on the Fed and economic data next week, with the first-quarter US earnings period nearly done. Ninety percent of S&P 500 companies have already reported results.

Major retailers set to report earnings next week include Home Depot, a Dow component, and JC Penney Co. , both on Tuesday, followed by Limited Brands, parent of Victoria’s Secret, and discount chain Target Corp on Wednesday. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc , the world’s largest retailer and a Dow component, is set to report earnings on Thursday before the opening bell.

The week’s mostly closely watched economic indicators will include the US Consumer Price Index and retail sales, both for April, on Tuesday, followed by April housing starts and April, industrial output and capacity utilization, all on Wednesday.

In Europe, problems with the Greek elections raised the risk of it exiting the euro zone.

“I think earnings and valuations are still very compelling. Unfortunately, what we’re looking at on earnings and valuations is going to be overshadowed by the fact that we’ve got these global issues we’re dealing with: Greece and France and their elections, and debt issues and the possible breakup of the euro,” said Evan Nowack, managing director at HighTower’s Leventhal Group in Bethesda, Maryland.

Bearish pattern

Technical charts indicate bearishness ahead.

“My ‘bigger picture’ view is that in the near or intermediate term, further downside is favored,” said Chris Burba, short-term market technician at Standard & Poor’s in New York.

S&P 500 charts are showing a “head-and-shoulders top,” he said, noting that demand earlier this month was not strong enough to push the benchmark index above its April high.

He sees support just below 1,300, while resistance could come at 1,415 for the S&P 500.

“The outlook stays bearish unless you get above 1,415,” Burba said.

Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.16% or 19.98 points at 12855.04. Nasdaq Composite was down 0.04% or 1.07 points at 2933.64. Standard & Poor’s 500 was up 0.25% or 3.41 points at 1357.99.

On economic data front, weekly jobless claims edged down 1,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 367,000. However, the US trade deficit widened more than expected in March to USD 51.8 billion, the biggest gain in nearly a year.

In key data to watch out for in the US today, consumer sentiment is expected to come in at 76.2 for May. Also watch out for data from producer price index.

In the currency space, the euro continues to trade around 1.29 to the dollar before Italy, Spain and France sell bonds next week amid concern the region’s debt crisis is deepening. The dollar index firm, above the 80 mark.

In commodities, crude prices decline after OPEC said that growth in global crude supplies is outpacing demand.

Brent crude is currently at USD 111 levels.

From the precious metals space, gold continues to trade below USD 1600 levels.

Asian markets trading weak | Hang Seng, Straits Times down

Asian markets were trading weak. China’s Shanghai Composite was down 0.30% or 7.29 points at 2,402.94.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 0.94% or 190.38 points at 20,036.90.

Japan’s Nikkei was flat at 9,004.67.

Singapore’s Straits Times was down 0.61% or 17.69 points at 2,885.91.

South Korea’s Seoul Composite shed 1.01% or 19.74 points at 1,925.19.

Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted slipped 1.09% or 81.23 points at 7,402.78.

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While corporate earnings were strong and the latest jobless claims report was encouraging, a lower-than-expected reading on the services sector and weakness in retail stocks drove the day’s trading.

Nonetheless, the S&P remained close to 4-year highs reached in early April.

Initial jobless claims posted their biggest weekly drop since May 2011 and countered Wednesday’s weaker report on private sector hiring.

A report Thursday from the Institute for Supply Management showed the pace of growth in the U.S. services sector slowed more than expected in April and new orders dropped. On Tuesday, the ISM said factory activity picked up in April.

“This is a continuation of the volatility and fits and starts we’ve seen in economic data, and that’s causing investors to take a wait-and-see attitude before tomorrow,” said Chuck Carlson, chief executive at Horizon Investment Services LLC in Hammond, Indiana.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 35.91 points, or 0.27 percent, at 13,232.66. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index took off 6.40 points, or 0.46 percent, at 1,395.91. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 26.96 points, or 0.88 percent, at 3,032.89.

The S&P 500 declined in April, the first monthly drop since November, on softening domestic data coupled with flare-ups in the euro zone debt crisis.

The index has struggled to convincingly break above the 1,400 level, a key resistance point, without stronger proof of the recovery, even as corporate earnings have largely topped expectations.

Retail stocks fell after several large chains missed sales estimates in April. The results were a troubling sign for consumer spending.

Gap Inc fell 1.2 percent to $28.80 while Target Corp lost 2.6 percent to $56.45, and the S&P retail index was off 0.7 percent.

“Retail sales were mixed at best,” said Allen Sinai, chief executive at Decision Economics Inc in New York. “As far as consumer fundamentals go, we’re better than we were a few months ago but we’re still far from the good old days.”

General Motors Co lost 2.1 percent to $22.45 after analysts said the carmaker’s North America outlook implied results for the first nine months of the year would fall short of expectations.

Health Net Inc slid 29 percent to $25.91 after profit missed expectations and the insurer cut its forecast. The Morgan Stanley healthcare payor indexdropped 5.3 percent.

Of the 391 companies in the index reporting results, 68.3 percent have topped expectations, according to Thomson Reuters data through Thursday morning.

Earnings were expected from 35 S&P 500 companies on Thursday, including American International Group Inc.

Police mounted a heavy presence outside the Barcelona hotel where the policymakers were meeting, ahead of protests expected against the Spanish government’s spending cuts that are supported by the ECB.

Financial markets want the central bank to step up its efforts to fight the crisis by buying Spanish government bonds to reduce borrowing costs for the country which is in recession and has unemployment that is twice Europe’s average.

But ECB policymakers are more likely to praise Spain’s cost-cutting drive than to announce any new policy action such as restarting their bond-buying programme.

Investors will focus on whether President Mario Draghi uses his 1230 GMT news conference to open the door to easing policy later this year if the crisis gets worse. The ECB has never before cut its main interest rate below 1.0 percent.

“We expect he is going to sound mildly dovish and more careful on growth, at least pointing to downside risks emerging again, but there will be no concrete signals for actions,” said Anders Svendsen, chief analyst at Nordea bank.

“For now, it is still too early for the ECB to change its view, but the risk of an interest rate cut during the summer has clearly increased,” he added.

The ECB has pumped over 1 trillion euros into the financial system in recent months, smoothing debt issuance for euro zone members. But Spanish bond yields jumped at a debt auction held as the 23-member ECB Council met, though demand was solid.

Draghi helped shift the tone of the economic policy debate in the euro zone last week when he advocated a “growth compact” without spelling out exactly what he meant.

French presidential candidate Francois Hollande, who wants to step away from German-inspired austerity, has welcomed Draghi’s comments and the ECB president will be pressed to flesh out his growth vision.

Draghi has so far pressed governments to shape up their economies with structural reforms but there is growing resistance to spending cuts that governments across the euro zone are making to streamline public finances.

BUNDESBANK PRESSURE

The Italian is under pressure to limit the ECB’s role from Bundesbank chief Jens Weidmann, who wants countries to put their finances in order rather than looking to the central bank.

“A consistent budget clean-up and determined structural reforms are the best growth policy, because that way trust is achieved and economic performance is strengthened,” Weidmann told German weekly newspaper Die Zeit.

Draghi also faces resistance from the powerful Bundesbank to any potential rate cut or a reactivation of the bond-buy plan.

“The euro crisis has not escalated to such an extent recently that he would want to take on the Bundesbank on that,” Berenberg Bank economist Holger Schmieding said of the bond-buy programme.

The ECB has left its bond-buy plan dormant for the last seven weeks despite a rise in benchmark Spanish yields to 6 percent. A break above that, to 7 percent, is considered an unsustainable price to pay to refinance its debt.

Weidmann told Reuters last month Spain should take the rise in its bond yields as a spur to tackle the root causes of its debt woes and not look to the ECB for help.

A Reuters poll taken last week showed three-quarters of economists saw the ECB restarting its bond purchases within the next three months. However, most money market traders said in a separate poll the bank would not buy more bonds.

AUSTERITY FATIGUE

Spain and its problems are at the heart of a downturn of confidence in the euro zone, where fatigue with austerity is growing just as the economy shows signs of deteriorating.

The euro zone purchasing managers’ index (PMI) showed the euro area’s private sector slump deepened in April at a faster pace than any economist polled by Reuters predicted, dampening hopes the region will emerge from recession soon.

The prospect of the euro zone as a whole following Britain into recession has set markets wondering whether the ECB could pave the way for a rate cut later this year. It has never before lowered its main rate below 1 percent.

Draghi said last week any “exit strategy” from the ECB’s emergency measures – long-term lending operations and the dormant bond plan – was premature given weak economic conditions and he has not ruled out cutting rates below 1 percent.

“He will probably emphasise the downside risks to growth without getting close to signalling a rate cut for June,” said Berenberg’s Schmieding.

“A June cut is not likely but it is not impossible and he will likely keep the options open when asked about it.”

ECB Vice-President Vitor Constancio said after the publication of the PMI data there were “very significant” risks to the economy, adding the bank would adapt its policy if those risks became a reality, as it did when it cut rates last year.

If that view makes it into the ECB policy statement, rate cut expectations that have begun to creep back into market pricing in recent weeks are likely to firm rapidly.

The S&P 500, the market’s broadest measure, managed to close out the week above the psychologically important 1,400 mark for the first time since early April.

But the index is still down 0.4 percent for the month so far even after gaining 1.8 percent for the week, with only one trading day left in April.

Brian Lazorishak, senior quantitative analyst and portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia, said a close above 1,400 is positive, but the recent high, near 1,422, is a more important technical level.

“That’s what we’re looking for on the upside as confirmation there’s room to move higher,” Lazorishak said.

“A close above that would open the window to testing highs back to early 2008. The next natural area you’d see is a run to at least 1,440, the May 2008 high.”

Next week’s release of a slew of economic data on the U.S. labor market and the beginning of the latter half of corporate earnings will be keenly watched to see if they are enough to allow stocks to break above the recent trading range.

The S&P 500, up 11.6 percent for the year, jumped 4.4 percent in January, 4.1 percent in February and 3.1 percent in March, but is down 0.4 percent so far this month.

“The sideways action we have seen over the past few weeks was enough to alleviate any overbought conditions that existed in the market a month ago,” said Larry McMillan, president of options research firm McMillan Analysis Corp in a report on Friday.

“Thus, the market has the potential for another leg higher in this longer term uptrend, one that began early October 2011,” he said.

JOBS, JOBS, JOBS

At the top of investors’ radar screen next week will be the government’s closely watched monthly jobs report for April, to be released on Friday. Jobs growth in March slowed to 120,000, the smallest increase since October, disappointing investors even though the unemployment rate fell to a three-year low of 8.2 percent.

Ahead of the government’s payrolls report, investors will be watching the ADP Employment Report due on Wednesday and weekly jobless claims data due on Thursday for indications of whether the labor market is gaining momentum.

Corporate earnings, which drove gains in stocks last week, will also be in focus.

As of Friday, 57 percent of the S&P 500 companies had reported first-quarter results. Of those 287 in the S&P 500 that had reported earnings, 72.8 percent posted results that topped analysts’ expectations, according to Thomson Reuters data.

Companies due to report earnings next week include Chesapeake Energy and Pfizer Inc on Tuesday; Prudential Financial , Time Warner and Visa Inc on Wednesday; and Kraft Foods and Viacom Inc on Thursday.

Also on agenda next week, Jamie Dimon, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase & Co , has organized a meeting of major bank chief executives with Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo, the central bank’s point man on regulation, according to The Wall Street Journal on Friday.

The meeting, slated for Wednesday in New York, is expected to focus on a Fed proposal to limit banks’ exposure to other firms and governments, though other regulatory concerns likely will be discussed.

While GDP is often considered more like looking into a rear view mirror, traders are hoping this report could serve as a roadmap for what type of momentum there might be going into the second quarter.

Jobs data has been one particular concern, after March’s weak nonfarm payrolls came in at half of February’s level. A string of elevated weekly unemployment claims reports since that weak 120,000 March jobs gain has added to concerns about the strength of April’s nonfarm payrolls, to be reported next week. Claims were high again Thursday, coming in at 388,000, above the expected 375,000.

GDP is reported at 8:30 am ET, as is the employment cost index. Consumer sentiment is released at 9:55 am Once more, there is a roster of heavyweight companies reporting earnings before the opening bell, including Procter and Gamble, Merck, Chevron and Ford. Weyerhaeuser, Newmont Mining, International Paper, Sanofi, Covidien, Simon Property, Goodyear Tire and VF Corp also report.

Europe will also be a focus Friday. The euro fell late Thursday after Standard and Poor’s cut Spain’s debt rating by two notches to BBB-plus form A. The ratings agency, in a release after the New York close, said it expects Spain’s budget deficit to worsen due to economic contraction. S&P, meanwhile, affirmed Ireland’s BBB-plus rating.

Economists expect GDP for the first quarter to show growth at a consensus 2.6%, with forecasts spanning a wide range of 1.2 to 3.6%.

“We’re above consensus. We’re at 2.9%. If we got a number like that it would ease a little bit of the growth worries,” said Michael Feroli, economist with J.P. Morgan. “Some of the late data we got came in a little stronger. Early on, we got some disappointing data on domestic final demand. Toward the end of the quarter, we started getting good data on inventories and foreign demand.”

Jonathan Basile of Credit Suisse said he expects GDP at 2.8%. “We don’t really have enough to go on but our forecast is 2% for Q2. We do expect a little bit of a pause before we see better performance in the second half,” said Basile.

Basile said he’s also looking at Friday’s consumer sentiment, and particularly the unemployment expectations for a read on the employment picture. “We’ve seen an uptick off a 13-year low in unemployment expectations,” he said. In the last report, the percent of people surveyed who thought there would be more unemployment in the next 12 months, rose to a level of 21%, from 19% in March.

Stocks rallied Thursday, in part on a sense of reassurance that the Fed may still do quantitative easing if the economy stumbles. But earnings have also been a catalyst, with 72% of the S&P 500 beating estimates, according to Thomson Reuters. The Dow finished up 113, at 13,204, just 60 points off the four year high it was at on April 2. The S&P ended up 9 at 1,399, and the Nasdaq rose 20 to 3,050.

The Fed Wednesday issued a post meeting statement, then released its latest forecasts before Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke held a press briefing. Those events prompted a bit more market turbulence than expected. Bond yields Wednesday first rose, then fell, and stocks rose. Stocks then rallied again Thursday.

On Thursday, bond yields rose late in the day, but were lower as traders covered shorts and reacted to a disappointing jobless claims report, earlier in the day.

“I would say it (the Fed) was more dovish relative to the (bond) market’s hopes and expectations. You still have the vast majority (of Fed officials) saying that in 2014, rates are going to be close to where they are now,” said David Ader, chief Treasury strategist at CRT Capital.

“The most important thing that I took away was Bernanke continues to leave the door open. It’s not new, but it’s not backing away from QE3,” he said. While some strategists and economists Wednesday read the Fed’s messages as more hawkish, Ader said it was the first time the Fed said in its statement that it viewed the inflationary impact of higher oil as temporary, meaning the committee does not see inflation as a problem.

Also, the Fed reintroduced Europe as a potential problem by saying strains in financial markets continue to pose “significant downside risk.” In January, it had said those risks eased.
“The Fed was a little bit of a head scratcher at the end,” Feroli said. “Definitely the committee’s forecast, not only on the funds rate but the economy, is turning a little more hawkish. Then you have Bernanke coming out, talking like nothing has changed.”

Art Cashin, UBS director of floor operations, said the weak dollar was a boost to risk assets Thursday. “I think the Dow is the lead horse. I think they’ve just decided things are a little better. Earlier on, Europe looked bad, but Bernanke and his shenanigans have the dollar a little weaker. The weak dollar has made gold go up, oil go up,” he said.

The Fed said the economy’s improvement was just “moderate” and indicated that the housing market remains at a “depressed” level.

The central bank gave no indications toward any further easing measures would take place, a key consideration as the stock market looks for direction. Stocks have come off their highs following a robust rally that began in October, shortly after the Fed introduced its last easing program.

In all, the Open Market Committee statement offered little change in wording from the previous month.

A 9-1 vote accompanied the statement, which renewed the pledge to keep rates low through 2014. The discount rate remains unchanged at 0.75%.

Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker was the sole committee member to vote against the wording.

“The Committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually,” the FOMC statement said. “Strains in global financial markets continue to pose significant downside risks to the economic outlook.”

The stock market dropped a few points after the release while long-term bond yields edged higher.

The Fed statement comes against a backdrop both of anxiety over the economy and pervasive sentiment that the central bank is unlikely to take any significant easing measures.

With the Operation Twist program coming to an end in June, the Fed is likely to wait for worsening economic conditions before taking action. The Twist is a balance sheet-neutral buying and selling of bonds in an attempt to drive down long-term lending rates.

Bernanke has been under some pressure to tip the Fed’s hand more as unemployment is improving but still high, and the housing market remains mired in a climate of dropping prices and middling sales.

The Fed has expanded its balance sheet to nearly USD 3 trillion through quantitative easing. While QE has coincided with a growth in stock market returns it also has stoked fears of inflation and criticism that the Fed does not have a solid exit strategy to unwind all the debt it has accumulated.

Yet inflation, at least at the core excluding food and energy costs, remains within the Fed’s target of 2%. Surging gasoline prices, past USD 4 a gallon at the pump, as well as persistently high grocery costs have nullified much of the case that inflation is tame.

Bernanke, though, has expressed far more concern about the jobless rate, which sits at 8.2%. He has said repeatedly he does not expect job creation to accelerate anytime soon.

The chairman follows the release of the Fed decision with a news conference, during which investors will try to parse his words for clues about future actions.

We expect he will sound cautiously optimistic on the better near-term outlook, but also concerned about the risks to the outlook from a variety of shocks, including Europe, oil prices, and the fiscal cliff,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch economists said in a note.

“As a result, we expect Bernanke to keep the Fed’s options open, acknowledging that there is no urgency for further easing now, but keeping additional asset purchases as a possibility should activity falter later this year,” they added. “If asked, we expect him to downplay the possibility of extending Twist and sterilized QE.”

Asian markets trading firm | Hang Seng, Nikkei up

Asian markets were trading firm. China’s Shanghai Composite was up 0.15% or 3.62 points at 2,410.43.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.58% or 120.43 points at 20,766.72.

Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.29% or 27.72 points at 9,588.73.

Singapore’s Straits Times was flat at 2,978.35.

South Korea’s Seoul Composite was up 0.33% or 6.46 points at 1,968.44.

Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted was flat at 7,556.07.

“Earlier this year…there was a short, tactical window where Asia might outperform the developed markets – well they have just barely done that, and now we think that even this tactical window has closed,” Ajay Kapur, Head of Equity Strategy, Asia, at Deutsche Bank said in a report.

Kapur says the large gap between US and Asian “economic surprises”, which made investors more cautious about investing in the US late last year, has converged.

“The economic surprises in the US were at record highs late last year, while those in Asia were exceptionally low. (Now) both regions show economic surprise close to zero,” he said. “So, the advantage that Asian equities enjoyed is gone.”

Major markets in the West including the United States’ S&P 500 and Germany’s DAX have risen 8.7 and 11.4%, respectively since the start of 2012. While within the emerging markets, China’s Shanghai Composite and India’s Sensex have gained 8.6 and 11.2% each, year-to-date.

According to Kapur, positive earnings out of the United States and Europe in the coming months will be a key driver of their outperformance in 2012.

“The earnings (growth) expectations in both the US and Europe are quite low now. For Europe, about 3% and for the US about 6-7%. In Asia, now the expected earnings growth is about 15%, so I think beating the US and European numbers is going to be pretty easy,” he said on Tuesday.

He adds that the free cash flow yield, which measures how much free cash per share a company generates, is higher in the West than in Asia, making the former more attractive.

“The free cash flow yield in Asia is only 2-3%, whereas even Japan is at 4% and the US and Europe are about 7-9%. Whichever way we slice it in terms of valuations for equities, we preferred the developed (countries) to Asia,” Kapur said.

According to Steve Brice, Chief Investment Strategist at Standard Chartered Bank, the “less proactive” monetary policy environment in Asia is likely to constrain the relative performance of the region`s equity markets.

“China naturally plays a key role here and the reluctance to embrace significant broad-based easing has been an impediment (to stock) markets in recent months,” Brice said.

Bullish on US equities

Among the developed countries, analysts back the US markets over their European counterparts. John Woods, Chief Investment Officer at Citi Private Bank is bearish on euro zone equities, but thinks the US markets will likely outperform emerging markets in Asia.

“To the extent Europe is in recession and a large question marks hangs over China, is it any surprise that the US is attracting a safe haven bid at the moment?,” Woods said.

Brice of StanChart says within developed markets, he has a “definite preference” for the US

“The economy looks more resilient than 12 months ago, even if it is likely to disappoint in the near term,” Brice said.

He adds that while Europe is attractive from a valuation perspective, the challenging economic environment may come in the way of broader market gains. “Authorities provide no leadership in managing the austerity versus growth trade-off, focusing almost entirely on the former. Therefore, we remain underweight Europe.”

Gold upside capped at $1800 despite bullish factors

The Dow Index is slipping below 13,000. The US dollar Index is hovering near 80 in a weak symmetrical triangle pattern. The euro/dollar continues in a downtrend with more weakness developing. All these factors should be bullish for gold.

But there are three important resistance features on the weekly Comex gold chart. The first feature is the strong resistance near USD 1,800/oz. The gold price has moved above this level, but this level developed strong resistance in November 2011 and again in February 2012. There is a high probability USD 1,800 will act as a strong resistance again.

This limits the rise in any rally. The second important feature is the long-term uptrend line. This uptrend line started in April 2010. The gold price has tested this trend line as support level in December 2011 and again in April 2012. This trend line is the lower trend line in an up sloping trading channel.

The third important feature is the upper trend line. This is parallel to the lower trend line. The two trend lines create an up sloping trend channel.

The normal behavior for the gold price since May 2010 is to trade within the boundaries of the up sloping trading channel. The breakout above the trading channel in November 2011 and February 2012 is unusual. These breakouts have created a strong resistance level near USD 1,800.

There is a high probability that gold will continue to trade in a rally and retreat pattern of behavior between the trend lines that define the trading channel. This gives short-term rally trading opportunities. The value of the upper trend line in the trading channel is near to USD 1,800.

The interesting feature is that the gold price chart does not appear to react to the changes in the Dow or the changes in the dollar exchange rate. The weakness in the gold price is a contradiction because other factors suggest the gold price should be strong. This contradiction shows traders need to use caution.

The uptrend is strong and stable and the trading activity is not created by fear and worry. The long-term uptrend looks safe but any rallies are limited by the strong resistance features. There is a high probability that the rally will retreat from the upper trend line and the resistance level.

The critical situation for the up trend is when the value of the lower edge of the trading channel trend line moves towards USD 1,800. The price will vibrate between $1,800 and the value of the lower trend line. If the lower trend line fails as support then the long-term uptrend in gold could also end. The first downside support level is near USD 1,500.

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Buick also points out the emergence of sentiments of member-nations of the EU wishing to return to their own systems and says that this was a dangerous trend for a such a large economic entity steeped so heavily it debt.

Q: Apart from the negative data indicated by the German PMI, developments in the French elections have not gone in Sarkozy’s favour. What is the main reason for this sell-off seen today and how do you see it pan out?

A: There is no doubt that the European Union looks to be in complete turmoil again. Last week, Spain’s funding dominated the agenda and issuance of their bills and bonds, which had obviously been seriously massaged by the ECB and the central banks.

This was followed by the weekend deliberations about the IMF managing to virtually double the bailout fund from USD 270 billion to around USD 800 billion. With an extra bit of input of USD 430 billion and the United States and China saying, “no thank you very much”, the investors’ sentiment are really rattled.

This morning the situation was compounded by adverse headlines coming from Holland, where it looks like they are going to have general elections and very uncertain environment behind the French elections, where it becomes uncertain whether Michel Francois Hollande, a socialist with a particular and possible tinge of being anti-Europe, will form the next government.

I think what we are getting now, which is making everybody think incredibly uncomfortable, is that feeling from many of these constituent countries within the European Union wishing to return to their own nationalistic beliefs.

This is very dangerous for an economic unit that is so heavily in debt. This has really unsettled all the investors as a result of which Germany is down by nearly 3%, France by over 2% and United Kingdom’s FTSE 100 is down by 1.7%.

The level of activity is pretty low, but market-makers are making very severe cuts because they feel uncomfortable with the environment.

Eurozone leadership crumbles on ‘bad news Monday’ | BGC

Louise Cooper of BGC Partners explained that the European markets were bogged down by a number of worries. This includes a French Presidential candidate with strong anti-austerity views who has won the first round of polls and the collapse of the Dutch government over disagreement over observing austerity measures.

Cooper also adds that the Euro is holding up on PMI data that indicated an increase in net positions during the week.

Q: What are the new worries in the European markets? Is it the first round of the French Presidential elections or something else?

A: A number of things. Francois Hollande has come first in the first round of the Presidential elections this weekend. This has caused some nervousness because Hollande’s policy is in direct conflict with Angela Merkel’s in Germany. So, there are lots of political fears about if Hollande becomes France’s next president.

In the Netherlands, the Dutch government is beginning to fall as one of the coalition partners was unhappy with the imposed fiscal austerity. Add to this is the appalling PMI data with fears about the economic future of Europe. So, it’s a sort of a ‘bad news Monday’.

Q: If Francois Hollande were to actually win, do you think it would cause trouble for Europe? He intends to renegotiate the treaty and is not really comfortable with the austerity measures and wants to focus on growth. Do you think a crisis situation would emerge if he were to come to power?

A: It’s always difficult to say what will actually be done once somebody takes office. But he has made that such a vocal part of his electioneering that it would be difficult to see him back down on his very, very public position of renegotiating the fiscal compact.

Angela Merkel sees the fiscal compact as one of her big successes. But it’s unraveling rapidly and her backing for austerity across Europe is really losing ground. We have already had a government fall over it in the Netherlands this weekend. We had the new Spanish government saying that they were are not going to meet the austerity targets.

And now we have a potential Presidential contender of second biggest eurozone country (France) who says he doesn’t like the fiscal compact. So at a time when Europe needs strong political leadership, it’s actually disintegrating.

Q: The Euro is holding up at a little off that 1.32 level and is not doing too badly. What’s holding it up?

A: The data that came in last week suggested that net short positions on the Euro had actually increased in the week. It’s the least ugly baby contest, isn’t it? Which is the least ugly baby? Everybody wants to buy the Swiss Franc to safety but the Swiss National Bank is not allowing you to do that.

So where do you put your money? The Deutsche Mark no longer exists, but I can assure you if it did, it would be terribly popular at the moment.

“If we don’t get some sort of a crescendo low, some sort of key turning point, it is going to pull those other markets down,” he said in an exclusive interview. Looking at the price action, Ross believes Spain is on its way to retest the 2009 lows.

Q: What do you make of the week that’s been, the strong earnings that we have seen that come in and the mix data that we have seen come in?

A: What is interesting is we came in kind of limping into this week. We had a big pullback in the S&P 500, almost 4% from peak to trough, so you got people leaving at the end of last week. We broke below our 50 day moving average (DMA) for the first time since December of last year and when you get so many people on one side of the boat, it doesn’t take much positive news to get them back on the other side.

That is what we have seen here, a nice little recovery in the S&P, back above our 50 DMA. As you have alluded to some strong corporate earnings out of bellwether stocks like Microsoft and McDonalds, so it is a strong finish on the heels of a disappointing week last week.

Q: We have got all the concerns around Spain and they seem to be building to a crescendo. What do you make of the kind of impact that is going to have on markets across the world, and especially in the US?

A: I think crescendo is a great word because when I look at the chart of the Spanish market and we take it back a few years, we see that we’re building towards a retest of that crescendo low that we had back in 2009. Of course back then that proved to be tremendous buying opportunities, not just in Spain but on a global basis. But now, we have markets in the US, Europe around the world at much higher levels here. So if we don’t get some sort of a crescendo low, some sort of key turning point, you are going to pull those other markets down.

The US is up over 10% on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. We have been burnt before getting too pessimistic at key market bottoms, but the action in Spain is very uninspiring, down 18% on YTD basis. It’s down 12% just this month alone, and when you break down individual charts the comprised benchmark index it’s not any better. So from a purely price action standpoint, there is a reason to be particularly nervous here.

The Nasdaq Composite fell as SanDisk Corp led a drop in semiconductor shares with an 11.3% slide after its second revenue warning in as many quarters.

Apple Inc’s more than 2.4% fall also weighed, as shares continue to struggle ahead of earnings next week. Apple shares posted back-to-back weekly declines of more than 4% for the first time since late December 2008.

As earnings season moves into high gear, the first wave of corporate results has been substantially stronger than expected. About 81% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beat expectations, according to Thomson Reuters data.

The impressive rate of beats comes amid lowered expectations, but the earnings have helped stocks regain their footing after a recent pullback on less-than-inspiring US economic figures and renewed worry about Europe’s debt crisis.

Analysts said the weakness heading into Friday’s close was in part because of caution ahead of an early indicator of China’s industrial activity, expected late Sunday.

“We already know earnings are coming in better, and the market has been up quite a bit,” said Doreen Mogavero, president and chief executive of Mogavero Lee & Co. in New York.

“The private-sector manufacturing data from China will be setting the pace for next week, so people are taking some profits off the table,” she said.

A weaker level in China’s HSBC flash purchasing managers index late in March sent equity and other risk markets lower.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 65.16 points, or 0.50%, to 13,029.26. The S&P 500 Index gained 1.61 points, or 0.12%, to 1,378.53. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 7.11 points, or 0.24%, to 3,000.45.

For the week, the Dow gained 1.4%, the S&P 500 added 0.6% and the Nasdaq fell 0.4%, down for a third week running.

Bank of America Corp fell 4.7% to USD 8.36 after a downgrade from CLSA analyst Mike Mayo. The shares led declines in the S&P financials group .GSPF, the second-worst performing among the S&P 500 top 10 sectors.

Microsoft Corp jumped 4.5% to USD 32.42 and was the top boost to the Dow on Friday, a day after its profit report beat Wall Street’s expectations.

General Electric Co’s results drove buying in industrial shares. The company said it expects double-digit earnings for the year, which helped shares rise 1.1% to USD 19.36.

Industrial conglomerate Honeywell International Inc reported higher quarterly profit and raised its 2012 earnings forecast. The stock rose 2.4 pct to USD 59.39.
The S&P industrial sector index .GSPI, up 0.8%, was a top boost to the S&P 500.

McDonald’s Corp edged up 0.7% to USD 95.94 after the world’s No. 1 fast-food chain reported higher quarterly profit, helped by strong US sales.

About 6.68 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE Amex, just shy of the 6.78 billion daily average so far this year.

Almost two issues rose on the NYSE for every one that fell, and despite the day’s decline, three issues rose for every two that fell on the Nasdaq.

Wall St Wk Ahead | Earnings, Fed to prove skeptics wrong

After a strong first quarter, Wall Street has gotten a case of the jitters.

A spike in bond yields has brought Europe’s debt crisis back to the forefront. US economic figures point to steady-but-uninspired growth, and stocks have backed off the sharp gains that recently pushed indexes to near four-year highs.

Stocks returned a bit to their winning track this week after strong earnings reports, and investors are waiting to see if more positive surprises from US companies are in store.

Nearly 180 of the S&P 500′s components will report earnings next week, and heading into a seasonally weak period, the market will need strong reports to offset the perception that there’s no more room to rally.

“It is very encouraging that the majority of the news flow is about earnings rather than Europe,” said Leo Grohowski, who oversees about USD 171 billion in client assets as chief investment officer at BNY Mellon Wealth Management in New York.

Earnings are “alleviating our concerns about economic growth and making us feel more comfortable about our estimates for the year.”

Next week will see earnings releases from several bellwethers. The most important will likely be Apple Inc.

Neumann, who heads Asian economics research at the bank, said that today an estimated 30% more investment is required to generate a unit of GDP compared with six years ago, signaling a decline in production efficiencies across sectors in Asia ex-Japan.

He adds that a further increase in investment needs to boost productivity would “raise a red flag”. “The worry remains that Asia is no longer getting quite the GDP bang for its investment buck that it used to,” he said.

Asia hasn`t been aggressive enough in sustaining economic reforms. “By privatizing state companies, (for example), they could become more competitive and in turn raise macro economic efficiency,” he said.

In a report titled, “Is Productivity Growth Slowing in Asia?” Neumann writes that global manufacturing hubs including China and Vietnam together with South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan have seen the most marked slowdown in recent years.

“Multinational companies are investing less in China, and part of this is due slowing productivity growth. Rising wage costs are the number one complaint,” he said, adding that many foreign companies believe the rise in wages hasn`t been meet by an adequate rise in productivity. Neumann says Vietnam is witnessing a similar situation also to due rising wage costs.

China`s foreign direct investment fell 5.6% to USD 11.8 billion in March, and Neumann says inflows could continue to slow, particularly in the export-oriented manufacturing sector.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist with Barclays in Singapore, however, disagrees that the wage hikes in China have not been matched by an increase in productivity.

“Wage growth hasn`t kept up with China`s years of productivity growth. What we are seeing now is just a correction of wages,” he said. “China was competing on low wage model driving high output for a long time, and this is starting to turn around.”

Bajoria adds that he has not witnessed much discontent regarding higher employee costs amongst foreign companies in China.

Will MNC`s Go West?

According to Neumann, Western economies such as the United States have improved productivity at a faster pace than Asia following the global financial crisis.
“Asian manufactures aren`t improving their competitiveness to the same degree as they have in the past,” he said.

American firms have used the crisis to “trim excess fat”, reorganize their supply chains and invest in their IT infrastructure, he said, leading to greater productivity.

Neumann points to US automakers as an example of a sector that has made notable gains in efficiency.

“They shed factories, they cut their input costs, and they got rid of pension liabilities. They also took steps to improve productivity per worker by investing in new production processes,” he said.

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Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was up 0.28% or 58.63 points at 20,839.36.

Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.68% or 65.30 points at 9,601.96.

Singapore’s Straits Times was flat at 3,000.89.

South Korea’s Seoul Composite was flat at 2,004.95.

Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted was down 0.18% or 13.31 points at 7,591.69.

Nikkei up 2% as Spain, global growth worries ease

Japan’s Nikkei index rallied 2.1 percent on Wednesday on robust U.S. corporate earnings, firm demand for Spanish debt and an upbeat German economic sentiment survey, with signals that the Bank of Japan may take more easing steps also providing momentum.

Mike Newman, head of research at Macquarie in Japan, said investors need to be selective in picking stocks, however, as the first quarter rally has petered out.

“Now the beta rally is behind us it now comes to individual companies to deliver sustained earnings. Toyota Motor and Yokogawa Electric are two examples of stocks that we think have good long term fundamentals to generate those sustained earnings,” he said.

The Nikkei closed 202.55 points higher at 9,667.26, breaking above its 13-week moving average near 9,583, after falling below the psychologically key 9,500 mark on Monday.

The index has lost 5.7 percent since hitting a one-year peak on March 27, however.

BOJ Deputy Governor Kiyohiko Nishimura said the central bank is ready to take additional steps to ease monetary policy as necessary, also helping to lift sentiment after this week’s sell-off on concerns over Spain’s ability to finance its debt.

Toyota Motor Corp industrial robot maker Fanuc Corp and TDK Corp were among exporters that were in demand, up between 2.8 and 3.7 percent as improved global risk appetite helped push the yen lower.

The broader Topix advanced 2 percent to 819.27.

Trading volume on the main board remained light, with 1.67 billion shares changing hands, up from 1.54 billion shares on Tuesday but down from last week’s average of 1.92 billion.

“There are a lot of companies reporting this week in the U.S. … I think just ahead of numbers, people are a little bit reluctant to put stuff to work,” a senior dealer at a foreign bank said.

STILL DOWNBEAT ON JAPAN

Financials were also in demand as concerns over Spain eased somewhat after the country raised more funding than planned at its bill auction on Tuesday.

Sentiment also improved after German analyst and investor confidence rose unexpectedly in April to a high not seen since June 2010, while the U.S. company earnings season has had a surprisingly strong start.

Nomura Holdings Japan’s top investment bank, surged 3.8 percent. Megabanks Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group and Mizuho Financial Group gained between 2.4 and 3.2 percent.

Nippon Electric Glass bucked the trend, down 1.7 percent after JPMorgan cut the company to “underweight” from “neutral”, citing a decline in earnings from its key LCD glass segment.

Global investors’ appetite towards Japanese equities has waned in April.

A monthly survey of asset managers by Bank of America Merrill Lynch showed investor allocation in Japanese stocks fell to 10 percent net underweight this month from 4 percent in March, but still above February’s net 23 percent underweight.

The Topix carried a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3, slightly cheaper than the U.S. S&P 500′s 12.5 but more expensive than the STOXX Europe 600′s 10, data from Thomson Reuters Datastream showed.

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Payday loans are your access to fast cash and they are available online or through local payday stores. Local payday stores may not be many, but online you will be flooded with the options available in payday loan lenders. With so many options available it can become confusing which lender is the best for you. That is why it is important to choose open door loans carefully.

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Always ensure that the payday loan lender that you are applying to online has a secure online application system. You will be sharing with them all your personal information, your salary, your bank account information, etc. So it is better to be sure that the site is secure. For this you need to check the website for logos of internet security companies it is registered with. Only once you are sure that the site is secure, should you proceed with your online application.

Conclusion

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“I’m afraid that the euro crisis is getting worse. It’s not over yet, and it is going in the wrong direction,” Soros said in discussion with Denmark’s economics minister hosted by the daily newspaper Politiken.

“The euro is undermining the political cohesion of the European Union, and if it continues like that could even destroy the European Union,” Soros said. “That is due to a misunderstanding of what the problem is.”

Soros, the Hungarian born US investor, said that the creators of the single European currency believed that imbalances were created in the public sector without understanding that markets themselves can create imbalances.

He said the euro crisis is being dealt with by policymakers as a fiscal crisis though the crisis began as a collapse of the banking system in the United States and was compounded by a divergence of competitiveness among European countries.

He said that failure to deal with the crisis was creating tremendous tensions because people, who see that policy is failing, are driven into anti-European positions and dissent is growing within and between the countries of Europe.

“It could be reversed at any time if only the authorities understood that the box is broken and you need to find some out-of-the-box invention to bring it back inside the box and then put it right, change the rules of cohesion,” he said.

Soros said the crux of the problem was that debt reduction was coming at a bad time for the European economy. “You can grow out of excessive debt, you cannot shrink out of excessive debt.”

And he warned that the eurozone fiscal compact, an agreement by 25 EU leaders to prevent another debt crisis and restore confidence, was pushing in the wrong direction because it obliged governments to balance budgets and reduce indebtedness at a time of inadequate demand.

He said that because fiscal stimulus was ruled out, monetary policy remained the only tool available.

US markets close mixed | crude slips over 2%

The US markets closed mixed, with the Dow edging closer to the psychologically-important 13,000 level and the S&P 500 holding near its key 1,370 level, however gains were limited as the Nasdaq was dragged down by heavyweights such as Apple and Google.

Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.56% or 71.82 points at 12921.41. Nasdaq Composite was down 0.76% or 22.93 points at 2988.4. Standard & Poor’s 500 was down 0.05% or 0.69 points at 1369.57.

On economic data front, retail sales climbed 0.8%, which is less than the downwardly revised 1.0% increase booked in the prior month. The empire manufacturing survey fell to 6.6 in April from 20.2 in March.

In key data to watch out for in the US today, housing starts are expected to rise to 0.700 million units and industrial production could have grown by 0.3% in March.

In the currency space, the euro rallies, recovering from multi-month lows against the dollar after it held key support levels ahead of a Spanish debt auction later this week. The euro back to 1.31, while the dollar index slips below 80 marks.

In commodities, crude prices slip over 2% to USD 118 levels. Currently stable in Asia trade.

From the precious metals space, gold prices trade around USD 1650 levels.

Asian markets trading lower | Hang Seng, Straits Times down

Asian markets were trading lower. China’s Shanghai Composite was down 0.34% or 7.91 points at 2,349.11.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.43% or 89.51 points at 20,521.13.

Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.39% or 36.82 points at 9,507.46.

Singapore’s Straits Times was down 0.23% or 6.78 points at 2,985.34.

South Korea’s Seoul Composite was flat at 1,993.20.

Taiwan’s Taiwan Weighted shed 0.74% or 57.19 points at 7,672.67.

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Shares on Wall Street and in Europe advanced broadly after briefly falling on data about unexpectedly high initial claims for unemployment benefits, which boosted worries that recent jobs data for March indicated a still struggling US labor market.

But other data showed that the US trade deficit shrank 12.4% to USD 46 billion in February, the biggest month-to-month decline since May 2009, the Commerce Department said, as exports hit a record high.

The record exports could lead economists to raise their estimates for first-quarter U.S. gross domestic product and bolster growth in the second quarter, which bodes well for the beaten-down outlook for earnings.

“The trade data is a lot better than expected,” said Eric Green, chief economist at TD Securities in New York.

“There was a big improvement in the real trade deficit, so I think it’s reasonable to expect a modest tailwind to growth in Q2 coming from the trade data, as opposed to a modest headwind. I think this puts GDP at 2 percent or higher.”

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 81.63 points, or 0.64%, at 12,887.02. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 9.23 points, or 0.67%, at 1,377.94. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 23.51 points, or 0.78%, at 3,039.97.

Traders bid up material and energy shares as chatter circulated about a stronger outlook for Chinese growth on speculation that China on Friday will release data that will show GDP growth accelerated in the first quarter.

The S&P materials sector rose 2.0%, while the energy sector gained 1.4%.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was down or 1.1% at 1,044.69.

“Earnings so far have been better than expected, and that reinforces the view that forecasts had gotten too pessimistic,” said David Joy, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Boston, where he helps oversee USD 571 billion in assets under management.

“Expectations had been revised significantly lower, but now they’re stabilizing, and I think there’s a chance we could exceed them,” Joy said.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, raising concerns the US labor market continues to struggle.

Initial claims increased 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 380,000, the Labor Department said, defying economists’ expectations for a drop to 355,000.

Some economists blamed the Easter holiday for the spike in claims and expected applications to trend lower in coming weeks.

US government debt prices pared gains to trade at break-even or lower. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury note was unchanged in price to yield 2.04%.

The dollar was down against a basket of major trading-partner currencies, with the US Dollar Index off 0.48% at 79.410.

The euro was up 0.50% at USD 1.3175.

Brent crude oil rose above USD 120 per barrel.

ICE Brent futures added 32 cents to USD 120.50 a barrel. US crude oil was up USD 1.16 at USD 103.86.

Before the US data release, European shares had traded higher and the euro hit a one-week high against the dollar as investors took in stride a jump in Italy’s borrowing costs despite growing concern about the euro zone debt crisis.