It will be another battleground for S&P 500 index next week. Will the bears finally give up and let the bulls have their way? The S&P 500, the market's broadest measure, managed to close out the week above the psychologically important 1,400 mark for the first time since early April. But the index is still down 0.4 percent for the month so far even after gaining 1.8 percent for the week, with only one trading day left in April. Brian Lazorishak, senior quantitative analyst and portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia, said a close above 1,400 is positive, but the recent high, near 1,422, is a more important technical level. "That's what we're looking for on the upside as confirmation there's room to move higher," Lazorishak said. "A close above that would open the window to testing highs back to early 2008. The next natural area you'd see is a run to ... Read More

The first read of first-quarter US GDP Friday could drive financial markets, as investors look for signs of direction from an economy that has been sending mixed signals. While GDP is often considered more like looking into a rear view mirror, traders are hoping this report could serve as a roadmap for what type of momentum there might be going into the second quarter. Jobs data has been one particular concern, after March’s weak nonfarm payrolls came in at half of February’s level. A string of elevated weekly unemployment claims reports since that weak 120,000 March jobs gain has added to concerns about the strength of April’s nonfarm payrolls, to be reported next week. Claims were high again Thursday, coming in at 388,000, above the expected 375,000. GDP is reported at 8:30 am ET, as is the employment cost index. Consumer sentiment is released at 9:55 am Once more, there is a roster ... Read More

The Federal Reserve, citing concerns about the pace of recovery, held its key interest rate near zero and indicated the economy would have to improve substantially for any changes in policy to take place. The Fed said the economy's improvement was just "moderate" and indicated that the housing market remains at a "depressed" level. The central bank gave no indications toward any further easing measures would take place, a key consideration as the stock market looks for direction. Stocks have come off their highs following a robust rally that began in October, shortly after the Fed introduced its last easing program. In all, the Open Market Committee statement offered little change in wording from the previous month. A 9-1 vote accompanied the statement, which renewed the pledge to keep rates low through 2014. The discount rate remains unchanged at 0.75%. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker was the sole committee member to vote against the wording. "The ... Read More

While developed and emerging market stocks have been locked in a close race so far this year, with the MSCI World Index and MSCI Emerging Markets Index up 8 and 10%, respectively, strategists say Western equity markets are likely to outperform their Asian peers in 2012. "Earlier this year...there was a short, tactical window where Asia might outperform the developed markets - well they have just barely done that, and now we think that even this tactical window has closed," Ajay Kapur, Head of Equity Strategy, Asia, at Deutsche Bank said in a report. Kapur says the large gap between US and Asian "economic surprises", which made investors more cautious about investing in the US late last year, has converged. "The economic surprises in the US were at record highs late last year, while those in Asia were exceptionally low. (Now) both regions show economic surprise close to zero," he said. "So, the ... Read More